Problem definition

The importance of thinking creatively about problems and solutions

Types of data and sources

Importance of using numbers

Evaluating data and information

Displaying information

Patton & Sawicki: 66 - 175

Blackboard Readings

Read Superfreakonomics

Mintrom: 44 - 89 (Recommended)

Policy debates often involve "experts".  But what is an expert?  See this interesting article from the USA Today (7/18/05).

Read this essay about why science matters and why it is a way of life from the NY Times (6/1/08)

Sometimes trusting your gut instinct is the best strategy for making decisions  Download this interesting article from the U.K. Mail Online (8/11)

Read this thoughtful essay about the importance of language for managers and policy analysts from a recent issue of the PA Times (Nov/Dec 2010).

It is also important for policy analysts to use numbers whenever possible.  The problem of course is that people often have trouble understanding the meaning of numbers.  Watch this short clip from David Letterman for some examples of the problems people often have in terms of interpreting numbers:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2dJanAgydps

If we see lots of faces all day and recognize them, why is it so hard to stare at stacks of statistics and charts?  Listen to this short NPR interview that provides interesting examples of the problems that humans sometimes encounter when looking at numbers. 

"Poverty" is an excellent example of problem definition and the role that changing values play.  See this chart and an article from the Washington Post (9/10) on rising poverty rates.  This chart from the New York Times also illustrates a variety of perspectives on poverty and unemployment around the country (9/11).  For an alternative perspective, see this article from National Review online and a report prepared by the Heritage Foundation (July 2011).

Is declining median income a problem (see this chart).  What is likely causing the trend?  Are all of the potential causes problems?

Is the growing national debt a problem?  See this recent article from the LA Times (8/23/11).  See this figure for the growth in the debt ceiling since 1980.  See this chart on increased government spending.  Are entitlements to blame or are big increases in government spending.  See this interesting perspective (8/11).   Is it because the rich are not paying there fair share in taxes?  See this article exploring how much could be raised by taxing the "rich" (8/11).

Policy analysts often have to think counter-intuitively because the world doesn't always work the way we think it does.  Give some thought to the problems identified in these articles.  What are the cause and effect relationships? 

	Why are ICU deaths higher on the weekend (7/10)?
	Why do heavy drinkers outlive non-drinkers (8/10)?
	Why is weight loss toxic (9/10)?
	Is it actually safer to be modestly overweight than underweight?  See this report in the JAMA on Obesity and Death (2005) and a related article about CDC linking risk of death to obesity (2005).
	Does your job make you fat?  See this interesting article questioning whether the changing nature of work is responsible for increasing obesity (NY Times - 5/11)?
	Does the neighborhood you live in make you fat?  These articles in CNN and the USA Today  (10/11) imply that if you move to a better neighborhood your risks of obesity and type 2 diabetes decline.  See the corresponding report from the New England Journal of Medicine that the articles' are based on that reports the results of a randomized social experiment conducted by Ludwig, et al. (10/20/11).  What do you think the causal model is or should be?
	What really makes Urban Roads Safer (USA Today Jan '11)?
	Why do Black men live longer in prison (Reuters 7/11)?
	Is it really important eat more vegetables (MailOnline 1/11)?  See this rebuttal of the study's conclusions from January '11.
	Do you really need 8 hours of sleep or is that another generally accepted myth  (BBC 2/22/12)?
	Is too much exercise bad for you?  See this interesting report of a study of those who exercise to the extreme from the MailOnline (6/3/12). It turns out excess exercise can be very bad for you.
	What if you just engage in a little exercise?  That cannot possibly be bad for you can it?  See this interesting article from the NY Times (5/31/12) that notes the potentially harmful effects of exercise on some people.
	Why does snoring raise your risk of cancer five-fold (Telegraph 5/20/12)?
	Are calcium supplements actually for you?  A new study reported in the USA Today (5/23/12) finds that they increase risks for heart attacks.
	Should you continue using hand sanitizer?  A recent study noted that the widely used chemical Triclosan in hand soaps, sanitizers, and other personal-care products hinders muscle contractions (Sacramento Business Journal 8/12).  But is the risk of an infection from not sanitizing your hands worse?

Did you ever wonder if using too much Salt is really bad for you?  I bet you have because I remember this being taught in health class in high school in the 1980s, and my Doctor has advised me to reduce my salt in-take countless times of the last 3 decades.  The Center for Disease Control (CDC) and prevention not only recommends reducing salt in-take but even helped promote a World Salt Awareness week during March 26 - April 1, 2011.  Mayor Bloomberg of New York City was not to be outdone.  New York City has now embarked upon a controversial voluntary program to reduce Salt consumption (See Fox News Story from 1/12/10) complete with an educational campaign.  With sugary sodas now subject to regulation can the salt shaker be far behind?  The funny thing is that all of this may actually be exaggerating the harmful effects of Salt Consumption (see commentary from the Reason website 1/11/10).  In fact, long-term consumption of salt at the levels recommended by the CDC may actually cause more harm than good.  While no one doubts the short-term beneficial effects of reduced salt consumption on blood pressure (Download 2001 Dash Study Results).  As this article in the Scientific American (July 6, 2011) reporting the results of the meta-analyses conducted by the Cochrane Collaboration, it turns out that extrapolating those findings to a wider range of diseases is problematic at best.  As a result, a growing number of commentators are beginning to point out the disconnect between the "conventional wisdom" and what the data from scientific studies actually supports in terms of the harmful impacts of salt consumption.  See this excellent oped from the New York Times (June 3, 2012) and this one from the Scientific American (July 8, 2011) (note how the commentators echo the same observations about what happens to anyone who challenges the conventional wisdom).  For those that like a little salt on your food, you have nothing to fear.  If scientific research studies don't deter the anti-salt movement, fortunately the Salt Industry has taken matters into its own hands and is working behind the scenes politically to ensure its business model stays in tact (See this story from the NY Times on May 29, 2010). 

According the World Health Organization (WHO), cell phones can cause brain tumors and the press seems to agree (See this collection of news reports of the WHO finding).  But do they? See this critique of their finding and a news account from 2 weeks prior to the WHO meeting that said the researchers concluded that there was no clear link?  Also be sure to read page 5 of the WHO press release that describes what a group 2b finding is and think about what evidence is needed to reach that conclusion.  A statistical correlation is one thing but what about the substantive significance of their finding.  Understanding that would require first understanding the baseline risk of getting any type of brain cancer in the first place (See NIH fact sheet) and then understanding that gliomas are a subset of the various types of brain cancer and are relatively rare amount the different types.  Moreover, if cell phones did cause cancer, shouldn't there be some detectable increase in brain tumors considering they have been in widespread use for more than a decade?  There does not appear to be much evidence in the medical literature that this is the case. 

While data and numbers are important, communicating these results effectively using tools like PowerPoint is critically important.  See this interesting article from Government Executive about how PowerPoint can be the enemy of thought (9/1/04). 

While numbers and data are important, it is also important to know where these numbers come from and what they mean.  See this interesting article about the fudging of crime statistics (2/10) in New York.  This recent article from CNN on President Obama's claim to have created 4.5 Million jobs is another interesting example of the misleading use of numbers (9/5/12).  It is also important to realize if you are looking for something you never looked for before, you may find more of it but that doesn't mean there really is more of it.  See this interesting article from the USA Today on Mercury in the water (8/04).  Similarly, unemployment rates are largely a function of the poorly understood labor force participation rate.  See this interesting article (ZeroHedge 2/12) that demonstrates how unemployment rates are trending down but at the same time their are fewer "jobs". 

It always important for policy analysts to remember that people (and politicians) are often bad judges of risk.  See this interesting article from the USA Today (8/06) on risk.  Yet it is common to read articles highlighting dangers that play on our inability to understand risk.  Are bear attacks a big danger (La Times - 8 /11)?  Are playgrounds too safe (NYT 7/11)?

Of course, sometimes there are extremely unlucky individuals.  See this interesting article about a man whose house has been struck by a meteorite 6 times (7/10).  If you lived next door to him would your chances of being hit by a meteorite increase or decrease?

However, sometimes your read statistics that just don't make sense.  How could it be more likely to be hit by a piece of a satellite (estimated at 1 in 3,200) (Download article) than by lightning in your lifetime (1 in 10,000).  I'm betting whomever did the math to produce the estimate reported in this article failed their statistics class.  Although I still wouldn't want to live next door to the man reported in the previous bullet when the satellite crashed to earth.  I'm also not sure I want to be in his neighborhood in February 2013 on the  off chance this asteroid actually hits Earth.

Sometimes efforts to solve one problem make other problems worse.  See this interesting article from the USA Today on the problems related to growing ethanol use (8/08).  This more recent article illustrate how growing ethanol production is continuing to worsen food prices (9/2/12).  Similarly, the policies implemented through no child left behind have led to wide spread instances of teacher cheating.  See this USA Today investigative report: Testing the System (Mar. '11), this set of articles on a widespread scandal in Atlanta as examples (7/11), and this story on problems in South Carolina (2008) 

While data and numbers are important, communicating these results effectively using tools like PowerPoint is critically important.  See this interesting article from Government Executive about how PowerPoint can be the enemy of thought (9/1/04). 

Video Clip - Hans Rosling gives brilliant insight into the world’s explosively changing population, in its physical, economic and political health. To say nothing about his basic mission of teaching the use of statistical methodology.

See this interesting article from Parade magazine summarizing the new book Superfreakonomics (10/09)

Download as an adobe acrobat file

Figures - Data analysis

UNCW's Randall Library

National Highway Traffic Safety Administration

NHTSA - Traffic Safety Facts 2005

NC Crash Data

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Rochefort, David A. and Roger W. Cobb. 1994. The Politics of Problem Definition: Shaping the Policy Agenda. Lawrence, KA: University of Kansas Press. 

Cook, Thomas D. And Donald T. Campbell. 1979. Quasi-Experimentation: Design and Analysis Issues for Field Settings. Boston, MA: Houghton Mifflin Company.

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