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Evaluating Alternatives
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Topics
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Distinction between goals and policies |
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Comparing outcomes rather than alternatives |
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Goals/alternatives/outcomes matrices |
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Sensitivity analysis |
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Forecasting |
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Trend extrapolation |
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Decision trees |
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Game theory |
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Operations research/linear programming |
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Risk assessment |
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Impact assessments |
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Readings
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Bardach: 27 - 46 |
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Patton & Sawicki: 257 - 361 |
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RES #5: Gupta, Dipak K. 2001. "Chapter 10
Projection Techniques: Analysis of Historical Data." in Analyzing
Public Policy: Concepts, Tools, and Techniques. Washington, DC:
Congressional Quarterly Press. |
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RES #6: Gupta, Dipak K. 2001. "Chapter 13 The Elements of
Strategic Thinking: Decision Tree and Game Theory." in Analyzing
Public Policy: Concepts, Tools, and Techniques. Washington, DC:
Congressional Quarterly Press. |
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RES #7: Guess, George M. and Paul G. Farnham. 2000.
"Chapter 4 Forecasting Policy Options." in Cases in Public
Policy Analysis. Second Edition. Washington, DC: Georgetown University
Press. |
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Handout - Using
computer-based analysis and simulations |
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Handout -
Property reevaluations in New Hanover County |
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Handout -
Forecasting errors that matter (Bloomberg News 8/25/09) |
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Lecture Notes
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Web Resources
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Books of Possible Interest
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There
are a wide variety of books describing different approaches to evaluating
alternatives and different ways to develop research
designs, collect data, and analyze data including: |
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Neustadt,
Richard E. and Ernest R. May. 1986. Thinking
in Time: The Uses of History for Decisionmakers. New York, NY: The
Free Press. |
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Weiner,
David L. and Aidan R. Vining. 1992. Policy
Analysis: Concepts and Practice. Second Edition. Englewood Cliffs,
NJ: Prentice-Hall. |
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Quade,
E. S.. 1989. Analysis for Public
Decisions. Third Edition.
Revised edition by Grace M. Carter. New York, NY: Elsevier
Science Publishing Co. |
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Patton,
Carl V. and David S. Sawicki. 1993. Basic
Methods of Policy Analysis and Planning. Second Edition. Englewood
Cliffs, NJ: Prentice Hall. |
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Majone,
Giandomenico. 1993. Evidence,
Argument, and Persuasion in
the Policy Process. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press |
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Rossi,
Peter H. and Howard E. Freeman. 1993. Evaluation:
A
Systematic Approach. Fifth Edition. Newbury Park, CA: SAGE
publications |
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Singleton,
Royce A., Jr., Bruce C. Straits, and Margaret Miller Straits. 1993. Approaches
to Social Research. Second
Edition. New York, NY: Oxford University Press |
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Cook,
Thomas D. and Donald T. Campbell. 1979. Quasi-Experimentation:
Design and Analysis Issues for Field Settings. Boston, MA:
Houghton Mifflin Company. |
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Roe,
Emery. 1994. Narrative Policy
Analysis: Theory and Practice. Durham, NC: Duke University Press. |
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