Distinction between goals and policies

Comparing outcomes rather than alternatives

Goals/alternatives/outcomes matrices

Sensitivity analysis

Forecasting

Trend extrapolation

Decision trees

Game theory

Operations research/linear programming

Risk assessment

Impact assessments

Bardach: 27 - 46

Patton & Sawicki: 257 - 361

RES #5: Gupta, Dipak K. 2001. "Chapter 10 Projection Techniques: Analysis of Historical Data." in Analyzing Public Policy: Concepts, Tools, and Techniques. Washington, DC: Congressional Quarterly Press.

RES #6: Gupta, Dipak K. 2001. "Chapter 13 The Elements of Strategic Thinking: Decision Tree and Game Theory." in Analyzing Public Policy: Concepts, Tools, and Techniques. Washington, DC: Congressional Quarterly Press. 

RES #7: Guess, George M. and Paul G. Farnham. 2000. "Chapter 4 Forecasting Policy Options." in Cases in Public Policy Analysis. Second Edition. Washington, DC: Georgetown University Press.

Sometimes the best decision is not to make a decision and opt for more study or more information as a way of putting off making a decision.  This is often done for obvious political reasons.  See this interesting set of articles looking at whether President Obama should approve the Keystone XL  Pipeline (download article) (11/11)?  Does it surprise you to then read that he opted for more study a year before the election (Download article)?

Handout - Using computer-based analysis and simulations

Handout - Property reevaluations in New Hanover County

Handout - Forecasting errors that matter (Bloomberg News 8/25/09)

Handout - BLS forecasts the Employment Cost Index (ECI) to help calculate raises for military and civilian employees (10/29/10)

Handout - Article on implications of ECI (10/29/10)

Handout - Social security payouts exceed taxes (3/10)

Handout - CBO report on Debt forecasts (3/10)

Handouts - Articles on the draft recommendations from President Obama's Deficit Commission (11/10/10)

Download as an adobe acrobat file

Figures - Evaluating alternatives

GAO report - Demonstrates how a budget simulation helps illustrate the growing social security crisis

Example of a NC Budget Forecast - Oct 2010

Example of a NC revenue outlook from January 2011 and the Joint Appropriations Briefing from January 2011. 

This simplified interactive budget cutting exercise from the NY Times website lets you explore the consequences of different scenarios

YouTube Spoof of Ben Bernank and the Federal Reserve's quantitative easing (QE2) monetary policy change (11/10)

President Obama formed the National Commission on Fiscal Responsibility and Reform in February 2010 to evaluate proposals to addressing the growing problems of the national debt and deficit.  The Co-Chairs Erskin Bowles and Alan Simpson released their  Draft Recommendations powerpoint (11/10/10) and illustrative outline of savings (11/10/10).  Their final report was released in December 2010 entitled The Moment of Truth (December 2010).  None of the recommendations were implemented. 

See these local benchmarking reports that have have examples of performance measures for a Fire Services, Police Services, Residential Refuse, Fleet Maintenance, Central Human Resources, and Asphalt Maintenance for FY '10

Neustadt, Richard E. and Ernest R. May. 1986. Thinking in Time: The Uses of History for Decisionmakers. New York, NY: The Free Press.

Weiner, David L. and Aidan R. Vining. 1992. Policy Analysis: Concepts and Practice. Second Edition. Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice-Hall.

Quade, E. S.. 1989. Analysis for Public Decisions. Third Edition.  Revised edition by Grace M. Carter. New York, NY: Elsevier Science Publishing Co.

Patton, Carl V. and David S. Sawicki. 1993. Basic Methods of Policy Analysis and Planning. Second Edition. Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice Hall.

Majone, Giandomenico. 1993. Evidence, Argument, and Persuasion in  the Policy Process. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press

Rossi, Peter H. and Howard E. Freeman. 1993. Evaluation: A  Systematic Approach. Fifth Edition. Newbury Park, CA: SAGE publications

Singleton, Royce A., Jr., Bruce C. Straits, and Margaret Miller Straits. 1993. Approaches to Social Research. Second  Edition. New York, NY: Oxford University Press

Cook, Thomas D. and Donald T. Campbell. 1979. Quasi-Experimentation: Design and Analysis Issues for Field Settings. Boston, MA: Houghton Mifflin Company.

Roe, Emery. 1994. Narrative Policy Analysis: Theory and Practice. Durham, NC: Duke University Press.