1	Belajar Berdemokrasi (Studying Democracy): Impressions of Indonesia's Post-authoritarian Development Presentation by Paige Johnson Tan to the United Nations Association of Wilmington October 24, 2004
2	Outline of Presentation Introduction to Indonesia (geography, population, political background and transition from authoritarian rule) Presidential Election Observation, July 2004 Arenas of Democratization Indonesian Challenges
3	Indonesia Introduction
4	Population Total: 238 million (2004) Fourth-most populous country on earth Third largest democracy Largest Muslim nation
5	Ethnic/Linguistic Breakdown Unifying language of Bahasa Indonesia (lingua franca of trade, second language for many Indonesians) Fourteen linguistic groups with more than a million speakers Largest group the Javanese. Java’s population @60% of Indonesia’s Javanese 45%, Sundanese 14%, Madurese 7.5%, Coastal Malays 7.5%, Other 26%
6	Map of Indonesia
7	Religious Breakdown Muslim 88% Christian 8% Hindu 2% Buddhist 1% Other 1%
8	Nutshell Political History (1) Independence from Netherlands 1949 (jaw-jaw and war-war) Tried parliamentary democracy, but it was chaotic (governments rose and fell in quick succession), seen as divisive and contrary to Indonesian character Democracy overthrown in 1959 with President Sukarno’s authoritarian “Guided Democracy” (Sukarno, PKI, military) Sukarno overthrown in 1965 by General Suharto (anti-Communist pogrom, elimination of PKI)
9	Nutshell Political History (2) Foundation of Suharto’s “New Order” regime: Pillars of military, bureaucracy, and the Golkar party Able to maintain control through: Coercion and violence Legal limits on popular and party participation Control of the press Legitimacy earned through economic management (1965-1995 4.7% annual GDP growth) and maintenance of political stability
10	Transition from Authoritarianism Reasons for Suharto’s fall: Asian Financial Crisis (GDP -13.8% 1998) Reformers able to spin crisis as political and economic problem. Cannot be solved until Suharto is gone Long-term trends in education, wealth make segments of population less enamored with top-down rule Split in military and elite as to whether to continue to support Suharto Bravery of students (working with more senior democracy activists) in escalating confrontation with the regime
11	Building Democracy? Peaceful transfer of power to new democratically elected leaders in 1999. President Abdurrahman Wahid (PKB), Vice President Megawati Sukarnoputri (PDI-P). Most powerful parties (June 1999 parliamentary elections): PDI-P (secular-nationalist), Golkar (mixed), PKB (trad. Islam-nationalist), PPP (mixed Islam), PAN (modernist Islam-pluralist). Abdurrahman’s presidency is tumultuous, and he is impeached in July 2001 and replaced by VP Megawati. Her presidency known for some stability (improvement over the escalating demonstrations that went on for about a year before Wahid overthrown) but also lack of progress in reform, slow growth, rise of terrorism.
12	Parliamentary Elections in Indonesia, 1999-2004
13	Observing the First Round of the Indonesian Pres. Elections, July 2004
14	BEFORE THE ELECTION Campaign Banners and Posters in Jakarta Candidate 1: Wiranto and Solahuddin Wahid/Gus Solah (Golkar)
15	Candidate Pair 2: Megawati Sukarnoputri and Hasyim Muzadi (PDI-P) Choose Mega-Hasyim Usual banner slogan: Already proven, Already tested
16	Candidate Pair 3: Amien Rais and Siswono Yodohusodo (PAN) Choose number 3 Honest, bright, and brave
17	Candidate Pair 4: Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono and Jusuf Kalla (Demokrat) My choice, number 4 Moving toward an Indonesia that is secure, just, and prosperous
18	Candidate Pair 5: Hamzah Haz and Agum Gumelar (PPP) No banner photo for Hamzah Stealth candidates PPP party logo, Ka’bah in Mecca
19	Election Day, July 5, 2004
20	The Environment of the Polling Station (1)
21	The Environment of the Polling Station (2)
22	Pollworkers Taking Oath of Office
23	Explaining the Ballot
24	Waiting to Vote
25	Casting Ballots
26	Dressing up to Vote
27	Inked Fingers
28	Monitoring the Vote
29	Counting the Vote (1)
30	Counting the Vote (2)
31	September 20^th-2^nd Round Elections
32	Lessons from Elections 2004 Decline in support for major parties as voters turned to new forces that presented themselves as clean, non-political, pragmatic. Parties unable to sway voters toward their respective candidates in the presidential race. People made their own choices. Campaign periods too short. One debate among candidates going into round one, one separate “discussion” in round two. Round two campaign period only three days! Three elections in one year too much. Election fatigue by September 20^th, also long period of uncertainty. Personality over substance.
33	Arenas of Democratization State-ness Political Society Civil Society Economic Society Rule of Law State Apparatus
34	SBY’s Challenges Find a way to construct a workable majority in the parliament (take Golkar?) Resist the temptation to use popular mandate to bypass inconvenient institutions (like parliament). Instead. build institutions (parties, courts, elections, bureaucracy) Restore international confidence in the Indonesian economy, create jobs Fight terrorism and corruption Deal with separatist conflicts in Aceh and Papua. Make center-regional relations (autonomy) work Attention to education and the rule of law Tackle the delicate issue of fuel subsidies Communicate with the Indonesian people AND LISTEN TO THEM