Irresolvable Conflicts: The Middle East

Irresolvable conflicts:

Examples:

• Middle East (1948)

• China-Taiwan (1949)

• India and Pakistan over Kashmir (1947)

Characteristics (Analyze each for Middle East):

• Scarce resource, usually territory, with multiple claimants. Usually, only one can control. 

• Deep, emotional issue (divisions of religion often)

• Positions become mutually exclusive, zero-sum

• Extremists often dominate the rhetoric on the issue, hard for politicians to resolve

• Failure of outside mediation.  Affected by degree of outside involvement (Snow says outsiders may help to prevent worse but may make worse as well).

• The longer the conflict is unresolved, the harder the status quo may be to depart from (perhaps good for Taiwan, bad for Middle East).

Some background to the Arab-Israeli conflict. 

• The Jews were expelled under the Romans from the area of Israel and moved all over the world in a "diaspora." 

• Later, the Holy Land was controlled by Romans, Byzantines, Arabs, and later Turks. 

• After World War I, the area became a British mandate (colony, but notionally under League of Nations supervision). 

• Around the same time, many Jews were exploring the idea of creating a homeland for the Jewish people. Some believed that homeland should be in the Biblical land of Israel, promised to the Jews by God.  A movement began to return Jews to the Holy Land.  They began to move in while the territory was still under the control of Ottoman Turks and primarily peopled by Arab Muslims.

• With the horrors of the Holocaust during World War II, there was a new impetus for the international community to help the Jews. So, in 1948 Israel was created by the United Nations.

• Immediately, the new state was attacked by its Arab neighbors who vowed to drive the Jews out. 

• To general surprise, the Israelis fought off the attack by the Arab states and survived. 

• Many Palestinians (non-Jews, either Muslim or Christian) fled the Jewish state, believing they would be rescued by their Arab brethren or afraid of potential violence. 

• This created the problem of Palestinian refugees.

• The original division of the land left some of the Holy Land for the Jews and some for Muslims.

• The holy sites of East Jerusalem in the Old City generally fell on the Muslim side of the 1948 line.

• In renewed Arab-Israeli fighting in 1967, the Israelis successfully captured the West Bank from Jordan, the Sinai Peninsula and Gaza Strip from Egypt, and the Golan Heights from Syria. 

• The Jordanians have renounced their claim to the West Bank, and the Sinai has been given back to Egypt in a 1979 peace agreement. 

• The Palestinians are in the West Bank and Gaza (along with overseas refugee camps and in Israel proper as "Israeli Arabs").  But they are not unified. The West Bank has been controlled by the more secular Fatah arm of the Palestinian Liberation Organization. Gaza has been controlled by Hamas, a more Islamist group which has been less willing to negotiate with Israel.

Peace talks started by President Obama in 2010 made little progress.  The conflict continues to boil. . .

1) What issues continue to divide Israel and the Arabs?

1A) Israel and Palestinians?

·        Jerusalem

Why so difficult?

1) Haram al-Sharif (the Noble Sanctuary) which contains both the al-Aqsa Mosque (long a center of prayer and learning) and the Dome of the Rock (where Muhammad was supposed to have ascended to heaven on his "Night Journey"). Holy to Islam.

2) Former Palestinian Authority President Yasser Arafat declared East Jerusalem the capital of a future Palestinian state.

3) Holy to Jews as well, Temple Mount is the site of Solomon's original temple (900s BC?). All that remains is the Western, or Wailing, Wall.

4) For some religious Jews, entire city promised to the Jews, holy, "Go up to Jerusalem."

5) Proclaimed by Israel as undivided capital (no one recognizes this) "for all eternity" (Sharon).  Keep embassies in Tel Aviv.

6) Intertwining of Jewish settlement/no neat division (see map).

7) Christians also have a stake--In Christian belief, Jerusalem is where Jesus was betrayed, crucified, buried (Church of the Holy Sepulcher), and resurrected. It is also where he will return.

Photo is the Western/Wailing Wall, Jerusalem, (Wikipedia)

·        Right of return

Palestinian refugees, 1948 (Wikipedia)

Why so difficult?

1) Palestinians fled (many claim expelled) when Israel was born.  Most thought they would be right back when their Arab brethren liberated the territory for them.  Sixty years later, there are now four million of these refugees and their descendents.  They want their and their families' homes and property back. 

2) Emotional issue. Right of return would mean it was wrong that they had to leave in the first place. Moral victory.

3) Israeli side. What is it to be a Jewish state if all these millions of Palestinians live there? Given differential birth rates, the Jews could quickly be a minority in own country.

·        Size and nature of a future Palestinian state

Why so difficult?

1) Palestinians want West Bank and Gaza with Israel inside its 1948 borders.

2) Israelis (many) want to negotiate the borders to ensure greater Israeli security and to bring in large Israeli settlements into the Israeli state.  Some of these settlements were planted by the religious right to capture more land for Israel, realize biblical gift of land to the Jews.  About 200,000 in East Jerusalem. Another 200,000 spread throughout the West Bank.  Settlements in Gaza were cleared earlier.

3) Palestinians reluctant to give in on Israeli settlements. Complaint that Israelis have already taken the best land.

4) Israeli security fence taking for Israel land beyond 1948 borders and thus prejudging a peace settlement. Israel says the fence is necessary to keep out Palestinian suicide bombers.

·        Palestinians' use of terror/indiscriminate violence which assumes that all Israelis part of occupation, therefore all, not just military, legitimate targets.  Palestinian government structure involved in fostering terror: Al Aqsa Brigades, Hamas.

·        Israelis' targeting of Palestinian civilians (rocket attacks on civilian areas, destroying homes of suicide bombers).  Many more Palestinians than Israelis killed in on-going violence between the two groups.

Picture is from Der Spiegel, 2006. This woman killed herself in a "martyrdom operation"/suicide bombing

1B) Israel and the Arab Nations?

• In 2002 (reiterated in 2009), the Arab League promised to recognize Israel in exchange for a Palestinian state in 1967 borders (some land swaps okay).

• For some hardliners (such as in the rhetoric of President Ahmadinejad of Iran or the Palestinians' Hamas): Israel has no right to exist, stole Muslim land, and incorporates the third holiest site in Islam. From this quarter, often hear: "Drive the Jews into the Sea!" "Wipe Israel off the Map!" "There was no Holocaust!" (Believe the Holocaust was made up and keeps getting propagated in order to justify Israel's existence and the oppression of Muslims).

2) Do Arabs and Jews just hate each other? Can they never get along?

• Long periods of history in which Jews lived comfortably alongside Muslims in the Middle East.  During the Inquisition in Europe, many Jews emigrated to the Ottoman Empire to receive better treatment.  Existed as distinct community, couldn't have grander synagogues than mosques, paid a special tax. Other than that, generally left alone to administer own affairs.

• But, true that sixty years of conflict (wars = '48, '56, '67, '73, '82 Lebanon, '06 Hizbullah Lebanon, '08 Hamas Gaza) oppression of Palestinians/terror against Israel) have made living together peacefully difficult. 

• Israeli "strike hard" strategy.  They strike us, we strike them harder.

• Massacres at Sabra/Satillah (Lebanon, 1982)

• Israelis' failure to stop settlement building, failure to move forward on various peace agreements to get the Palestinians their own state.

• Palestinians' use of terrorist suicide bombings, vicious circle.  Israelis can't get out or they'll be too insecure. If they don't get out, Palestinians will continue to try to force them to do so . . . .  No security.

•  So much has happened on both sides to make hate.  Clearly, it would take statesman-like efforts on both sides to make peace happen and to lead the populations away from the path of violence and hate.

3) Leadership

·        Different theories about leadership.

·        Some say leaders just re-package what the people already believe and give it to them.  Therefore, accepted as leaders.

·        Some ascribe to a "great man" theory of leadership.  Great moments throw up great men to carry out great tasks.  Great man have charisma and wisdom to attain vision.

·        Another theory, developed by Ronald Heifetz, leadership as adaptive change.

·        True leader is the one who gets people to face their difficult issues, manages the "holding environment" to enable the people to work through issues, leads people in adaptive change/confronting difficult issues and developing new modes of solving.

·        Little surprise that Heifetz is a psychiatrist.  Like a psychiatrist helps people to talk about issues, creates a safe place for them to explore/work through difficult issues, helps them through adaptive change where learn to cope with past pain or deal with current problems.

·        Have Israeli and Palestinian leaders shown signs that they are capable of leading their people through adaptive change?

·        Inability to control extremists on both sides?

4) Is the Middle East conflict solvable? Why have some nations been able to come to terms with Israel while others haven't?

Yes: Egypt, Jordan, Turkey

No: Lebanon, Syria, Iran

5) What are a "fair" means of resolving the various outstanding issues?

Two extremes: All the land for Israel, all the land for the Palestinians.

Between these two extremes, any fair outcomes?

One state solution?  Some have advocated.

6) Looking at peace efforts today and back during Carter's first Camp David experience, what has changed to make a solution more or less likely?

First, what did those negotiations deliver?

·        Sinai (small oil) for Egypt,  recognition for Israel (Egypt wanted Gaza but did not get it)

·        Peace treaty for both

·        Egypt got some wording about how the Palestinian issue would be settled--autonomy for West Bank and Gaza to become the basis of a Palestinian state (still there today).

More likely?

• Divisions within Arab world over how to proceed, no united front of opposition

• Greater US ability to pressure both sides, without Cold War

 Less likely?

• Geopolitical context-Cold War gone, sense of urgency gone (Egypt had expelled Soviet advisors 1975, moving closer to West. But Yom Kippur war in 1973 had been on the verge of bringing superpower patrons into conflict, when Soviets threatened to intervene to help Egyptians get back across Suez canal where they were trapped by the Israelis. US threatened to counter-intervene.  Need to end, could lead to nuclear war)

• Participants and issues different (Israel and Egypt in Camp David I.  Sadat courage in recognizing Israel's right to exist in face of universal opposition-hated in Egypt and eventually assassinated by Muslim fundamentalists, considered a traitor to Islam)

• Principle of diplomacy, according to Snow, negotiation easy issues first, hard ones remain--well, hard ones remain now (issues left from Camp David I).

• From both sides, unreliability of the other in carrying out responsibilities under various peace processes (Israel transfer of authority to Palestinians, Israel continued building of settlements, Israel recalcitrance on allowing independent state to be born, Palestinians put in place an administration that can guarantee Israeli security, second intifada).

• Disunity on the Palestinian side between Fatah and Hamas.  Hamas' rejection of Israel's right to exist.

7) Implications for the United States

·        Inspires terrorists and helps recruiting. US seen as unfairly biased toward Israel, our largest aid recipient in recent decades.

·        Instability keeps Middle East back economically.  Focus on political issues, causes strife, rather than moving forward with development.

·       Perceived need to stand by friends.

·        Difficult issue for US administrations, pressure of pro-Israel lobby in the US, now sympathy with fellow sufferers from terrorism.

·        Consumes diplomatic attention that might be used elsewhere.

8) Is the Israeli-Palestinian problem the central problem in the Middle East?  If we solve it, do we solve everything?

• New book by Dennis Ross and co-author says this is a "myth."  All problems of the Middle East won't be solved when the Israelis and Palestinians living happily in two states.  Myth allows Arab leaders to avoid other tough issues.

Question:  Can President Obama do anything to bring about a solution?  What is he doing to try?

Last updated: August 11, 2011

tanp@uncw.edu

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