Indonesia Isn't Really a Disaster

Op-ed

Wilmington Star News (Wilmington, NC)

02/13/2007

by Paige Johnson Tan

If you’re like most people, when you read this week about the flooding in Indonesia’s capital Jakarta, it was probably the first time you thought about the country since the Indian Ocean Tsunami of Christmas 2004.   I think about Indonesia all the time.  It’s my area of specialty as an assistant professor of Political Science at UNC Wilmington.

In this month’s flooding in Indonesia, more than three hundred thousand have been forced from their homes and at least 54 killed.  Those who have been able to return to their homes find houses filled with mud and refuse.  Unclean water and inadequate sanitation raise the danger of the human toll of the disaster increasing through disease in the weeks to come.  Sadly, many people with almost nothing have lost everything.  Frighteningly, continued heavy rain may lead to renewed flooding.

The Tsunami and the flooding are not the only disasters Indonesia has confronted in recent years.  Earthquakes in Nias (2003) and Yogyakarta (2005) have killed more than 5,000, injured 20,000, and destroyed thousands of homes, schools, and other buildings.  In mid-2006, 11,000 fled in Central Java when mud oozing from the earth buried several villages.  Terrorist attacks have been a regular occurrence, the most notable at Bali in 2002 and again in 2005, killing more than 200. 

Indonesia is also the country worst hit in human terms by bird flu, with at least 63 dead, mostly in the Jakarta area.  Natural disasters, terrorism, disease, ferry sinkings, plane crashes, and separatist conflicts:  studying Indonesia’s politics, I am prompted to wonder sometimes how Indonesians soldier on.

To top it all off, Indonesia has weathered all of these traumas while engaged in a transition from authoritarianism to democracy.  In 1998, the country’s long-serving dictator Suharto was overthrown by student protests.  Today’s leader Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono came to power in 2004 in the country’s first-ever direct presidential election.  Just two months into his term of office, he was confronted by the devastation of the Tsunami. 

In addition to the transition from dictatorship to democracy, the country has been attempting to recover from a massive economic crisis which began in 1997, when the currency plummeted, banks collapsed, investors fled, and millions were thrown into poverty.  In 1998 alone, Indonesia’s economy shrank by 13%, seemingly erasing the gains of decades. 

But, Indonesia has turned a corner.  The people are resilient.  A photo on the website of the Jakarta Post one recent morning showed people stowing their prized motorcycles on railroad tracks to keep them high and dry, away from the flood waters.  Indonesia survives.

Despite the challenges, Indonesia’s democracy has thrived.  It is by no means assured that the country will be a liberal democratic regime like the United States in the end.  Vote buying, intimidation, corruption, and domination by the same old elite are on-going dilemmas.  But, Indonesia, whose population is more than 80% Muslim, is disproving the perception that Islam and democracy are incompatible.  Elections are used to choose parliaments at all levels, the president, and now governors and county heads, too.  Some Islamic parties call for the implementation of Islamic law.  Some focus more on clean government.  The military, long dominant in politics, is stepping back to focus on its security duties. 

The economy has returned to growth.  This year, economic growth of 5 to 6 percent looks likely.  Per capita income has clawed its way back to levels not seen since before the economic crisis.  Political calm has contributed to more rosy forecasts for the country’s economic future.  The country’s business competitiveness has risen to number 50 in the World Economic Forum 2006 rankings.  Problems remain, but one has only to look back to realize how much better today is.

In other fields, interesting developments are also afoot.  In religion, moderate groups actively encourage inter-faith understanding.  In culture, a generation of women writers has come of age, creating daring works of fiction.  In the press, a vibrant (if not always high quality) media has arisen, adding hundreds of voices to the public square.

Indonesia seems the largest country in the world that is the easiest to ignore.  Its population of more than 240 million makes it the fourth most populous country on earth.  It is the third largest democracy and the largest Muslim nation.  Its 17,000 islands are spread across an area of ocean broader than the continental United States. Yet, we only seem to hear about it when disaster strikes.  I’ll keep watching.  Perhaps we all should.

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Paige Johnson Tan is an Assistant Professor of Political Science at the University of North Carolina Wilmington.  She grew up in the suburbs of Washington, DC and did her Ph.D. at the University of Virginia.