The past? Salzburg, Austria 2003 (Tan)Global Warming/Climate Change
The past? Salzburg, Austria 2003 (Tan)
What is global warming? From Snow: "The extent to which the climate of the Earth is gradually increasing in temperature due largely to human actions." It involves the emission of greenhouse gases (CO2 50+% of the problem, methane 18%, and nitrous oxide 6%) "into the atmosphere in volumes that are in excess of the capacity of the ecosystem to eliminate them naturally."
Transnational issue, like terrorism. Can't be solved by one state by itself. Affects many/all states (some more than others).
Disagreements:
Whether climate change is occurring: measuring changes that have occurred (loss of ice in Arctic, new ice in Antarctic), determining whether this is part of natural cycles of climate that occur on Earth (little Ice Ages and warming periods). We know there is more CO2 around (lasts for a century, fewer trees to process). Many scientists argue that the gas has a "greenhouse" effect, trapping heat in the planet and thus warming it. Some observed changes: butterflies move up mountains to escape heat, glaciers retreat, spring comes earlier.
Ascertaining what effects will flow from any changes: Inundation of coastal areas (Wilmington/Bangladesh)/submergence of island nations (Vanuatu/Maldives), melting of ice caps, freak changes in weather (hurricanes/drought), extinctions of some plants and animals. Good for some areas: agriculture in Greenland, warmer temperatures in the North.
Figuring out who is responsible: fossil fuels, cut down trees in industrialization process. Industrialized countries responsible. Can't deny developing countries right to cut down trees, use fuel to develop--aspire to same level of wealth and comfort (North-South dimension).
Figuring out what to do about climate change: How much, if any, do we have to change our lives to meet the challenge? If problem is severe, a lot. If problem is mild or cyclical, not so much. Snow gives the example of range in estimates of warming in the next century: 1 to 10 degrees. Also, can we use our technology (wind, solar) to solve the problem without much sacrifice now? Sustainable development.
One proposed remedy: Kyoto Protocol 1997
Highlights: Goal is to reduce emissions below 1990 levels by 2008-2012 (different targets for different countries).
US was responsible for most emissions 36%, EU 24%, former Soviet bloc 17% (typo in Snow?), and Japan 8.5%.
Allowed developing countries not to take part (including South Korea, China, and India)
Emissions trading: can support "sink projects" in developing countries to earn pollution credits in developed world, under-polluting developed countries can also sell credits to polluters.
Change in US attitude from Clinton to Bush administration (no ratification of treaty). Bush administration objections: US being asked to do too much, will hurt the economy by making US goods to expensive all for the sake of unsure science, exclusion of China/India (China as of late 2000s the biggest global emitter).
Update: Copenhagen 2009 http://unfccc.int/meetings/cop_15/items/5257.php
Copenhagen Accord http://unfccc.int/files/meetings/cop_15/application/pdf/cop15_cph_auv.pdf
Recognizes scientific case for keeping temperature rise to below 2 degrees C (Many poor, African states pushing to keep rise to below 1.5 degrees C).
Reductions for US 14-17% below 2005 levels as a mid-term goal. Long-term targets for 2050 disappeared on last day.
$100 billion a year for adaptation by 2020.
Substantial cash to stop deforestation.
No obligations for developing countries like China to make any cuts.
Recommended: Video: PBS Frontline "Hot Politics" http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/hotpolitics/ (60 minutes). A little dated but good on politics behind US' position.
Updated: March 30, 2010.
Return to Dr. Tan's homepage: http://people.uncw.edu/tanp/